This is what Ontario hospitals would look like if everyone were vaccinated

The head of the Ontario science table has revealed what the province’s health care system would look like if everyone received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

“The health care system would not be overwhelmed or about to be overwhelmed if we had a fully immunized population,” Dr. Peter Juni told CTV News Toronto on Thursday.

As the onslaught of Omicron cases has seriously strained Ontario hospitals, Juni shared what-if scenarios, based on the data in the table, and described how the province’s health care system is doing. comes out.

The figures come from hospitalization data for the province according to vaccination status as of Thursday, January 6.

On that day, the province counted 319 people in intensive care with the virus, including 123 unvaccinated patients, 28 partially vaccinated and 87 fully vaccinated. The vaccination status of the remaining 81 patients is unknown.

Juni said if everyone was vaccinated, that number would drop below 150.

“If you have at least two doses, better three, it protects very well against COVID infection. This is the good news, ”he said.

But he argued that if all Ontarians weren’t vaccinated, instead of 319 COVID-19 patients in intensive care, there would be more than 2,000 – a situation he described as unimaginable.

“Our system would have decompensated and collapsed weeks ago. It’s just another world, ”Juni said.

“This just shows you how far we’ve come with this pandemic. “

Regarding the number of people hospitalized with COVID, but not intensive care, Juni said if everyone in the province were vaccinated there would be around 1,200 people in the hospital, instead of the total of 2. 279 Thursday.


Regarding staff and beds in hospitals, Juni said an average of 1.5 nurses are needed per intensive care patient.

If Ontario had just 150 people with COVID in intensive care based on Juni’s hypothesis of a fully immunized population, he said Ontario would need about 280 fewer nurses per day and that some 180 intensive care beds would be freed.


Juni said 1.5 million Ontarians are still unvaccinated and with the current level of protection he said it was very difficult to say what the spike in ICU admissions would be related to. Omicron, because the number of daily cases is no longer reliable and the tests are overwhelmed.

Juni said that even if everyone had two doses, some public health restrictions would still be needed before this peak.

“Can we reduce the risk to zero through vaccination?” No, of course not, ”said Juni. “But we can reduce it to a relative amount that protects the individual and the health care system.”


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