AFLW 2022: Round 2 Statistical Predictions

Long-time readers will probably remember me as that Yank who stays up all night on Fridays and Saturdays watching football from halfway around the world to provide you with insightful statistical analysis via the organization Follow Football, which covers everything related to football.

My other job is American college football, where I do pretty much the same thing – except there are 418 teams to watch! With the final championship game unfolding on Monday night – Georgia Universities beat the University of Alabama 33-18 for the top-flight college football playoff title – it’s time to change my biological clock again. and return to my first love!

Week 1 of the AFLW season went almost exactly to plan – I was able to slip our first-round picks into the comments section of our beloved fellow Avatar’s preview article just before the first bounce of the Richmond antics on Friday night – and like most tipsters, we went seven for seven on the winners. The only miss most people made was not unreasonably picking Brisbane to defend their title on Saturday.

On our published run-against spread bets, we managed to sneak four winners out of seven games when the Giants failed to push a ball between the sticks in the final five minutes late Sunday. Frankly, for a rusty first week, we will gladly take this record!

Following football has traditionally been above the 54% success rate required to break even betting – allowing the casino reduction that comes from paying $1.90 on $1 bets – to the course of a season. This is where we insert our usual disclaimer that we personally never bet real money on sporting events out of personal preference and decline to recommend that you do so. You’re free to do that of course, and whether our predictions play a role in your hand’s direction is up to you.

After an already retuned first round, it’s clear we’ll have another season to seat our pants, and there’s no doubt there will be a week or three where the games we choose don’t end up matching the unfolding reality. the weekend. By now we’ve probably all gotten used to that – believe me, it’s not better in the US. Any sports season that reaches its finale with anything resembling a fair and full schedule in 2022 should be considered a success.

Richmond players celebrate after the AFLW opener against St Kilda. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

So let’s look at AFLW Round 2 with the current ELO-Following Football Ratings which we have attached to each club at the moment – note that they are very flexible at the start. Remember, as always, 50 is the median mark in every league we monitor.

Richmond Tigers (odds 49.8) v Melbourne (odds 64.6)

Friday night, Punt Road Oval

The Tigers and Demons were two of five teams that not only won as expected last weekend, but also covered published point spreads, and they each improved their ELO-FF ratings by exceeding our expectations as well. But despite Melbourne’s lack of success in the final, they still achieved far more in the AFLW’s short history than Richmond, who improved their all-time distaff side record to a disheartening four wins and 12 losses. This is going to prove to be Richmond’s best year yet in the AFLW, but they aren’t ready to challenge the top dogs in the league just yet.

Prediction: Melbourne by 12.

Collingwood Magpies (odds 66.9) v St Kilda Saints (odds 34.9)

Saturday afternoon, Victoria Park

Conversely, the Saints must be disappointed with their start to the 2022 season: a six-goal defeat against a team they had rather run with last year. In their only previous meeting, in the last full round of 2020, the Saints held the Tigers scoreless in a 42-3 rout. Now they are well behind the Richmond gang and must face one of the competition favourites, a group from Collingwood who earned a pair of late gifts against Carlton to put two goals between them on Sunday en route to a simple victory of three goals. It looks like the Pies will be eager to prove they can win it all again this year and will want to tackle the Saints when they can.

Prediction: Collingwood by 32.

Brisbane Lions (score 59.4) v Carlton Blues (score 53.4)

Saturday evening, Maroochydore Oval

If Greta Bodey hadn’t put one of her four kicks into the big sticks early in the fourth in the Grand Final rematch on Sunday afternoon, Brisbane might well have been the AFLW’s first team to own a single-digit percentage – a 39-3 loss would have given the Lions a 7.7% percentage; the Crows would have entered Week 2 with a 1300% rating. As it stands, they are the last dead after a week and will be eager to put a W on the board playing in Queensland. If Carlton learned a few lessons from their traditional Round 1 Ikon Park game with the Magpies, they could stay with Brisbane and even take all four points with a break here or there. We’re going to assume that in Maroochydore the key break falls in the direction of crimson and not navy blue.

Prediction: Brisbane by 14.

Geelong Cats (score 37.8) vs. Western Bulldogs (score 44.4)

Saturday evening, GMHBA Stadium

The downside of playing in the men’s arena is the continued disparity in crowd sizes, especially when your team has a three-year all-time record of 6-16 while your men’s club has played 15 finals. of the past 16 years. You lose a lot of the crowd’s sense of support because they’re so scattered around you. But it’s hard not to enjoy a top-notch setup in your backyard, and frankly, I’m not personally familiar with the alternatives in and around Geelong proper. Still, it’s suspected the wildly popular Doggies will have their own backing vocals in the building and that accolade just might prove the difference between winning and losing in Round 2 this season.

Prediction: Western BUlldogs by one.

West Coast Eagles (odds 32.1) v Gold Coast Suns (odds 26.2)

Sunday afternoon, Whitten Oval

If this game was in Western Australia, we would pick the Eagles by 20 or so. As it stands, given that one of the West Coast’s two wins last season came by a single point winless Gold Coast and one of the Suns’ only two wins in their history was a 33-8 rout of the Eagles in Perth, we expect a lot and very little from this game – a lot because both teams will come into this game thinking it’s a winnable opportunity at the start of the season and very little because their all-time records suggest this may be a rather superficial high point for each of their seasons.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by seven.

Sunday afternoon, Norwood Oval

On the other hand – paw, claw – it could be a preview of the final, although despite their mutual success, these two powerhouses have never met in the final. Their most recent clash was almost two years ago, in the fifth inning of 2020, when North demolished the Crows 63-21 behind several goals from Kaitlyn Ashmore and Jasmine Garner, who both played for the Roos against the Cats last Saturday. It’s hard to deny that Adelaide looked much better than North in their demolition of defending champions Brisbane Lions in their first foray into the game this calendar year, and so it’s hard to go against the rating expectations that give a prediction of a tough battle this time around. around North in their bid to go 2-0 in Adelaide’s backyard.

Prediction: Adelaide by nine o’clock.

(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Fremantle Dockers (score 61.0) v Greater Western Sydney Giants (score 45.5)

Sunday evening, Whitten Oval

Two original clubs of eight, they struggled side by side in their first two seasons of 2017-18, each winning less than they lost and producing the first-ever draw in AFLW history in their very first meeting, Round 3 of 2017. Then Freo began a three-game six-game winning streak, not coincidentally the same year Kiara Bowers started playing with the club in the AFLW competition, making finals each season. Meanwhile, GWS went 10-12 with a token final appearance entirely thanks to the liberal rules put in place at the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

Both clubs have had reasonably solid wins in their opening matches, beating both sides in the Whitten Oval doubles warm-up match on Sunday. And just as the West Coast is a distinct favorite on the undercard, their Western partners are the distinct favorites here.

Prediction: Fremantle by 16.

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